AI-Powered Incrementality Attribution

Take Spend Decisions Confidently

Marketing dashboards tell you what looks efficient. SpendSignal tells you what actually creates revenue by modeling incrementality, halo effects, and delayed lift—then turns that into allocation recommendations you can act on. Uncover unattributed ROAS, calculate true ROAS, and forecast returns using ROAD—so teams can reallocate budgets with confidence.

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Built Inside Platforms at Massive Scale

$15B+
Combined platform valuation
$6.5B+
Annual advertising budgets influenced
$5M+
Incremental profit outcomes

Multiple industries · multiple geographies · real money at risk

SpendSignal is informed by operating experience inside some of the largest consumer and B2B platforms — where small attribution errors compound into multi-million-dollar mistakes.

Aggregated across platforms and operating roles.

See SpendSignal in Action

Real questions from industry leaders across D2C, SaaS, Marketplaces, Fintech, Retail, Media, and Agencies—answered with incrementality intelligence.

SpendSignal Analysis
D2C / E-commerce

Our ROAS looks fine, but profits aren't growing. What's actually going wrong?

Step 1 of 813% Complete

From 'What Works' to Industry Dominance

Scaling Isn't About Spending More. It's About Scaling What Actually Works.

Most companies stall not because marketing stops working — but because they scale the wrong signals.

ROAS

What performed in the past

tROAS + ROAD

What can scale into the future

SpendSignal

Bridges that gap

The Problem With Modern Attribution

Most marketing dashboards are confidently wrong.

Credit only what's clicked, not what's influenced

Ignore delayed impact and word-of-mouth effects

Reward channels that harvest demand instead of creating it

Push teams to optimize for reports, not revenue

The result?

Budgets get misallocated. Efficient channels get cut. Growth stalls for reasons no one can explain.

SpendSignal exists to fix this—by measuring incrementality, not attribution theater.

What SpendSignal Actually Does

Incrementality modeling without experiments—extracting causal lift from your existing data.

Everything in the platform ladders to these four outcomes—metrics that speak CFO language.

Technical Deep Dive

Understanding ROAD and tROAS

The mathematical foundation behind decision-grade marketing metrics

True ROAS (tROAS)

Return on Ad Spend, corrected for incrementality

The Problem with Standard ROAS

Standard ROAS = Attributed Revenue / Ad Spend

Credits only clicked conversions, ignoring view-through, halo effects, and delayed conversions

Over-credits retargeting and branded search (demand harvesting)

Under-credits prospecting and brand awareness (demand creation)

True ROAS Formula

tROASchannel = Incremental Revenuechannel / Ad Spendchannel
where
Incremental Revenue = Total Revenue - Baseline Revenue

Baseline Revenue is what you would have earned without any advertising—estimated using historical trends, seasonality, and control variables.

Causal attribution: Models what revenue was actually caused by ads, not just correlated

Lag effects: Captures delayed conversions (e.g., ads today → revenue next week)

Halo effects: Includes unattributed lift from awareness and word-of-mouth

Example: Retargeting Channel
Standard ROAS:8.5x
tROAS (incremental):2.1x

Retargeting harvests existing demand but creates little incremental revenue

Example: Prospecting Channel
Standard ROAS:1.8x
tROAS (incremental):3.4x

Prospecting creates new demand but gets under-credited due to attribution lag

Return on Adjusted Dollars (ROAD)

Measures the expected return from each marketing dollar after SpendSignal's recommended budget reallocation

Why ROAS Fails at Planning

ROAS and tROAS are backward-looking—they tell you what happened, not what will happen

Returns diminish at scale—spending 2x doesn't guarantee 2x returns

Channel interactions matter—cutting one channel affects others

ROAD Formula

For a given channel i:
ROADi = Predicted Incremental Revenuei (under revised allocation)
───────────────────────────────────────
Revised Spendi
For the entire budget:
ROADtotal = Total Predicted Incremental Revenue (revised plan)
─────────────────────────────────
Total Budget

Unlike ROAS, which looks backward, ROAD forecasts the real economic impact of future spend using incrementality-based modeling.

Diminishing returns: Accounts for saturation effects as spend increases

Channel interactions: Models how channels support or cannibalize each other

Confidence intervals: Provides upper/lower bounds, not false precision

Budget Reallocation Example
Current Allocation
Meta: $50KtROAS: 2.1x
Google: $30KtROAS: 3.4x
TikTok: $20KtROAS: 2.8x
Total Spend:$100K
Total Revenue:$263K
Optimized Allocation (ROAD-based)
Meta: $35KROAD: 2.5x
Google: $45KROAD: 3.1x
TikTok: $20KROAD: 2.8x
Total Spend:$100K
Predicted Revenue:$291K
Expected Lift:+$28K (+10.6%)

Same total budget, reallocated based on predicted marginal returns

Key Takeaways

Standard ROAS

Attribution-based. Backward-looking. Click credit only.

Good for: Reporting past performance

True ROAS (tROAS)

Incrementality-based. Backward-looking. Causal impact.

Good for: Understanding what actually worked

ROAD

Incrementality-based. Forward-looking. Predictive allocation.

Good for: Making budget decisions

Core Features Built for Decision Intelligence

Not just analytics—actionable intelligence that drives budget decisions.

Unattributed ROAS

Identify halo and word-of-mouth revenue driven by ads but never credited to them

How much revenue is influenced but unattributed

Which channels create downstream demand

How large your hidden ROI really is

True ROAS (tROAS)

Reported ROAS tells you what got clicked. tROAS tells you what actually worked

Recalculated returns using incrementality

Lag effects and causal impact analysis

Under-credited channels get their due

Source-Wise Budget Allocation

Once the signal is clear, SpendSignal moves from insight to action

Current vs recommended spend per channel

Reallocation based on marginal incremental returns

Guardrails to control risk and volatility

Predicted ROAD

ROAD (Return on Adjusted Dollars) measures expected returns after budget reallocation

Expected incremental revenue per channel

Overall uplift from reallocation

Confidence ranges, not false precision

ROAD vs ROAS: The Critical Difference

ROAS is backward-looking. ROAD is forward-looking.

ROAS

"How did this channel perform last month?"

  • Backward-looking
  • Attribution bias baked in
  • Doesn't answer "what next?"

ROAD

"If I invest this much next month, what will I get back?"

  • Forward-looking
  • Allocation-aware
  • Predictive & decision-grade

ROAD (Return on Adjusted Dollars) measures the expected return from each marketing dollar after SpendSignal's recommended budget reallocation. Unlike ROAS, which looks backward, ROAD forecasts the real economic impact of future spend using incrementality-based modeling.

How It Works

From Data to Decisions in Minutes

1

Upload Your Data

Upload a CSV or Excel file with your spend and revenue data. SpendSignal automatically detects date and revenue columns, channel-wise spend, and optional controls like promotions or events.

  • No pixels
  • No SDKs
  • No waiting weeks for integrations
2

Run Incrementality Analysis

SpendSignal applies incrementality modeling using lagged spend features, seasonality and trend correction, and counterfactual 'what-if spend didn't exist' analysis.

  • Separates true causal impact
  • From coincidence and noise
3

Optimize & Forecast

You instantly see unattributed ROAS, true ROAS per channel, recommended budget allocation, and predicted revenue impact.

  • Iterate through chat
  • Exclude periods, cap channels
  • Test scenarios directly

Chat-First, Not Dashboard-First

SpendSignal is built for how people actually think.

"Which channel is under-credited?"

"What happens if I move 15% from Meta to Search?"

"Recalculate excluding festive weeks."

"Give me a conservative forecast."

SpendSignal responds with answers, charts, and revised metrics—not just numbers on a screen. Each conversation becomes a decision trail you can revisit or share.

Built for Developers, Trusted by Finance

SpendSignal is API-first by design. Developer APIs + Chat Interface = actionable insight pipes.

  • Automate data uploads & triggers
  • Run incrementality models via API
  • Fetch metrics, allocations, and forecasts
  • Power your own dashboards or internal tools
  • Generate forecasts programmatically

The chat UI is just one client. The engine is built to plug into your stack.

We focus on actionable insight pipes, not just data plumbing.

Scenario Simulation & Confidence Layer

SpendSignal doesn't just output numbers—it guides decisions with confidence and explainability.

Budget Playbooks & Simulations

Run what-if scenarios interactively:

"Move 15% from Meta to Search—what happens?"
"Exclude sales promo weeks and recompute."
"What's the conservative lift forecast?"
"Cap Google spend at current level."

Confidence & Explainability

Decision intelligence that executives trust:

  • How confident we are in each metric
  • What data gaps hurt accuracy
  • What actions will actually change revenue
  • Confidence ranges, not false precision

This level of decision intelligence is what sets SpendSignal apart from vanity dashboards.

Proven Where Spend Decisions Actually Matter

SpendSignal is not a theoretical product.

Its models, assumptions, and decision logic are shaped by:

Platforms valued at over $15 billion

$6.5+ billion in cumulative advertising budgets

Environments where attribution errors impact profit, valuation, and board confidence

These learnings are now encoded into a product that makes the same class of decisions accessible without enterprise complexity.

When Budgets Are This Large, Attribution Becomes a Financial Risk

At $6.5B+ in annual advertising spend:

A 1% misallocation isn't noise — it's a material error

Over-crediting one channel distorts capital planning

Under-crediting another quietly suppresses growth

SpendSignal exists because at this scale, incrementality is not a marketing problem — it's a capital allocation problem.

Built for Different Scale

Most attribution tools are built for teams managing:

  • Thousands of dollars

  • Short feedback loops

  • Disposable experimentation

SpendSignal is built from experience where:

  • Budgets are locked months in advance

  • Decisions survive audit and scrutiny

  • Outcomes show up in earnings, not dashboards

Why SpendSignal Exists

SpendSignal was built after seeing the same pattern repeat at scale:

Reported ROAS stayed flat

Budgets kept increasing

Profit growth lagged expectations

The issue wasn't execution.

It wasn't creative.

It wasn't channel mix.

It was measurement bias — and it compounded faster as spend grew.

SpendSignal is the product that emerged from fixing this problem where the cost of being wrong was measured in millions.

Built for Finance-Grade Decisions

Marketing teams optimize dashboards.

Finance teams optimize outcomes.

Marketing Metrics

  • Clicks
  • Attribution bias
  • Historical averages
  • Post-mortems

Decision Metrics

  • Incremental Revenue
  • True ROAS
  • ROAD
  • Forecasted impact

No black-box scores. No unexplained magic.

Every Number Is Explainable

Enterprise teams don't trust answers they can't explain.

Clear Assumptions

All modeling assumptions documented and visible

Transparent Logic

Lag and incrementality calculations explained

Replay & Audit

Every scenario can be replayed and audited

Confidence ranges, not false precision.
If you can't defend it in a boardroom, it doesn't belong in the product.

Privacy-First Design

Designed for a Privacy-First World

SpendSignal does not rely on cookies, user-level tracking, PII, or device graphs.

It works on aggregated spend and outcome data, making it resilient to regulatory changes, platform deprecations, and regional privacy laws.

Enterprise-safe by design.

No Cookies

No User Tracking

No PII Required

No Device Graphs

Enterprise-Ready Infrastructure

SpendSignal is built with enterprise expectations in mind.

Secure data isolation

Per-customer data isolation

Role-based access

Granular access controls

Encrypted data

At rest and in transit

Scalable deployment

Scales with spend and data volume

Security is treated as a foundation, not a feature.
(SOC2 / ISO badges can be added once formally certified.)

No Experiments

No geo-tests. No budget freezes.

Incrementality Without Operational Overhead

SpendSignal delivers incrementality insights without geo-experiments, budget freezes, complex test setups, or weeks of waiting.

Upload historical data
Get answers immediately
Iterate safely before committing budget

This matters when spend is large and mistakes are expensive.

Trusted by Leaders Who Sign the Budget

"This finally explained why cutting 'inefficient' channels kept hurting growth."

Enterprise Marketing Leader

"For the first time, marketing and finance agreed on what was working."

Enterprise Marketing Leader

"ROAD made future spend discussions concrete instead of emotional."

Enterprise Marketing Leader

Make Changes Before You Commit the Budget

So decisions are made before money moves — not after damage is done.

Simulate reallocations

Test budget changes safely

Forecast outcomes

Predict revenue impact

Understand downside risk

Know worst-case scenarios

Compare scenarios

Side-by-side analysis

Built for Global Markets

Market dynamics vary by region—SpendSignal adapts to local CAC pressures, attribution constraints, and regulation

Simple, Transparent Pricing

Choose the plan that fits your needs

Starter

$49/month

For founders and small teams getting started

  • Up to 10 datasets
  • Core incrementality metrics
  • Chat-based analysis
  • CSV exports
  • Email support
Most Popular

Professional

$149/month

For serious growth and analytics teams

  • Unlimited datasets
  • Advanced incrementality modeling
  • Budget reallocation & forecasting
  • Full API access
  • Priority support

Enterprise

Custom

For large teams, agencies, and platforms

  • Dedicated infrastructure
  • White-label deployment
  • Custom models & constraints
  • SLAs and 24/7 support
  • Security & compliance controls

Who Uses SpendSignal

Decision-makers in fast-growth companies use SpendSignal to move from guesses to clarity

Built for Teams Where Every Spend Decision Matters

SpendSignal is not designed to impress dashboards.

It's designed to support decisions that move real money.

If you manage meaningful budgets and care about truth, this will feel familiar.