Most marketing and growth analysis treats outcomes as binary: Converted vs not converted.
What gets ignored is Time, Probability over time, and Risk acceleration. This causes misjudged funnel efficiency, premature channel abandonment, and overconfidence in short-term performance.
"How long does conversion usually take?"
"When is churn risk highest?"
"Which channels accelerate or delay conversion?"
"Where does the funnel decay over time?"
"Are we confusing “slow” with “bad”?"
Survival Analysis treats outcomes as events that may happen later, or may never happen at all.
Instead of asking: “Did this user convert?”, it asks: “What is the probability this user converts by time T?”
Key ideas: Hazard rate (risk at a given moment) and Survival curve (probability of not concerning yet). Think of it as: “Funnels with a clock attached.”
The Problem
Channels look weak because conversions are slow.
What It Reveals
Expected conversion timelines by channel.
Decision Enabled
Judge channels on patience, not impatience.
The Problem
Drop-offs aren’t evenly distributed.
What It Reveals
Where abandonment risk spikes.
Decision Enabled
Fix the right stage, not the loudest one.
The Problem
Churn is noticed after it happens.
What It Reveals
Rising hazard rates before churn.
Decision Enabled
Intervene before revenue disappears.
The Problem
Retention feels cheaper but slower.
What It Reveals
Long-term payoff curves.
Decision Enabled
Balance fast acquisition with durable retention.
The Problem
Long sales cycles break attribution.
What It Reveals
Conversion probability over months.
Decision Enabled
Fund demand creation without waiting for deals.
SpendSignal uses Survival Analysis to bring time intelligence into ROI.
Specifically:
This stops teams from asking “Why hasn’t this converted yet?” and starts asking “Is this converting as expected?”
Instead of “Conversion rate = 3%”, you see:
The decision insight: "This channel is slow—but reliable."
No. Any delayed outcome benefits.
Ideally yes—but aggregated event cohorts can still work.
It’s probabilistic, not deterministic—which is safer.