Most marketing analysis is short-term and transactional (Clicks → Conversions).
But important effects like Brand spend lifting organic demand, Content driving pipeline, or Community efforts are slow, indirect, and structural. Short-term models miss these entirely and often mislabel them as “unattributed.”
"Which channels and revenue move together in the long run?"
"Are brand and organic growth structurally linked?"
"Is this correlation real—or just coincidence?"
"Which investments build durable demand?"
"Where do halo effects actually exist?"
Cointegration looks for long-term equilibrium relationships.
It doesn’t ask: “Do these move together today?” It asks: “Do these variables drift apart temporarily but always pull back together over time?”
If they do, they’re cointegrated. Think of it as: “Different instruments playing the same underlying song.”
The Problem
Brand spend looks inefficient in last-click views.
What It Reveals
Long-term linkage between brand spend and organic revenue.
Decision Enabled
Defend brand budgets with structural evidence.
The Problem
Content ROI feels intangible.
What It Reveals
Content activity and revenue share a long-term path.
Decision Enabled
Treat content as an asset, not a cost.
The Problem
Channels are analyzed in isolation.
What It Reveals
Which channels reinforce each other over time.
Decision Enabled
Optimize portfolios, not silos.
The Problem
Short-term correlations mislead decisions.
What It Reveals
Whether relationships persist or decay.
Decision Enabled
Avoid chasing noise.
The Problem
“Halo effect” sounds hand-wavy.
What It Reveals
Statistical proof of structural relationships.
Decision Enabled
Align leadership on long-term investments.
SpendSignal uses cointegration as a structural validation layer.
Specifically:
This is how “halo effects” become measurable—not mystical.
Instead of “Organic traffic went up after brand spend”, you see:
The decision insight: "Cutting brand spend breaks the system—even if clicks look fine."
No. Cointegration tests for shared long-term equilibrium, not coincidence.
Not by itself—but it strongly narrows plausible explanations.
Attribution ignores long-term structure by design.