Statistical Model

Hierarchical Bayesian Media Mix Modeling (HB-MMM)

Understand how marketing impact differs across regions, segments, and business units—without losing statistical rigor.

Allows SpendSignal to answer a question most teams avoid because it’s statistically hard: “Does this channel work the same way everywhere?”

The Problem This Model Solves

Classic Media Mix Models average everything. They assume One Facebook ROAS, One Google Search response curve, One elasticity per channel.

That works fine until you operate across cities, states, countries, or have multiple brands/franchises. Performance “looks good overall” but budgets still feel wrong locally. Averaging hides where money is actually working.

Questions This Model Answers

"Which regions respond best to which channels?"

"Where is spend saturated locally but not globally?"

"Should budgets be centralized or decentralized?"

"Where are we under-investing because data is sparse?"

How the Model Thinks (Without the Math)

Hierarchical Bayesian MMM works in layers.

  1. Top Layer: A global understanding of how channels behave.
  2. Bottom Layer: Local models (by region, brand, segment).

Information is shared intelligently between them. Strong markets don’t dominate weak ones, but weak markets borrow strength from the global signal to avoid noisy nonsense. It’s “Local truth, informed by global reality.”

Core Business Use Cases

1Regional Budget Allocation

The Problem

One budget plan doesn’t fit all markets.

What It Reveals

Channel elasticity by region.

Decision Enabled

Shift spend geographically, not just by channel.

2Multi-Brand or Portfolio Optimization

The Problem

Brands fight for budget using incompatible metrics.

What It Reveals

Comparable incremental returns across brands.

Decision Enabled

Allocate capital like an investment portfolio.

3Expansion Market Validation

The Problem

New markets lack enough data for confident decisions.

What It Reveals

Borrowed strength from similar markets.

Decision Enabled

Scale faster without waiting quarters for data.

4Central vs Local Marketing Control

The Problem

HQ wants efficiency; regions want autonomy.

What It Reveals

Where global strategy works—and where it breaks.

Decision Enabled

Centralize what scales, localize what doesn’t.

Powered by SpendSignal

How We Use This Model

SpendSignal uses Hierarchical Bayesian MMM to extend incrementality across dimensions, not just channels.

Specifically:

  • Regional and segment-level iROAS
  • Local cost-elasticity curves
  • Portfolio-level ROAD optimization
  • Confidence-weighted budget recommendations

This model powers enterprise-grade allocation, not just reporting.

Example Output

Instead of "Google Search ROAS = 3.2x", you see a Capital Deployment Map:

  • India Tier-1 cities: Search saturated
  • Tier-2 cities: High marginal return
  • US West Coast: Brand channels outperform performance
  • EU: Retention spend outperforms acquisition

Works Best When

  • You have multiple regions, brands, or segments
  • Data quality varies across entities
  • Centralized decisions need local nuance

Be Cautious When

  • You operate in a single, homogeneous market
  • Data is extremely short-term
  • You need real-time bidding decisions (use RL later)

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this better than running separate MMMs per region?

Yes. Separate models throw away shared signal and amplify noise. HB-MMM leverages the hierarchy to stabilize insights.

Does this require massive data volumes everywhere?

No. Sparse regions borrow strength from richer ones, making it ideal for expansion markets.

Is the output still interpretable?

Yes. SpendSignal surfaces decision-ready insights (where to move money), not raw posterior distributions.

Stop Guessing. Start Knowing.

See how Hierarchical Bayesian Media Mix Modeling (HB-MMM) changes your budget decisions with a live incrementality audit.

Ask about ROAS, Attribution, or Budget...