Statistical Model

Distributed Lag Models (DLNM)

Understand when marketing creates revenue—not just whether it does.

Distributed Lag Models answer a question that breaks most attribution systems: “If spend happened today, when does its impact actually show up?”

The Problem This Model Solves

Most dashboards assume that Spend today → Revenue today (or tomorrow). If nothing converts quickly, the channel “didn’t work”.

That assumption quietly destroys Brand spend, Content marketing, Influencer campaigns, and B2B demand generation. In reality, marketing impact is spread over time. Ignoring lag leads to premature cuts and over-investment in short-term channels.

Questions This Model Answers

"How long does it take for this channel to pay back?"

"Which channels have delayed but durable impact?"

"When should we expect revenue after spend increases?"

"Are we cutting channels before they mature?"

"How much future revenue is already “in motion”?"

How the Model Thinks (Without the Math)

A Distributed Lag Model treats spend as a signal that echoes forward in time.

Instead of asking “What revenue happened on the same day as spend?”, it asks: “How much of today’s revenue was caused by spend from the past X days or weeks?”

The model assigns weights across time lags, learns decay curves per channel, and separates fast-response from slow-burn impact. Think of it as: “Revenue has memory.”

Core Business Use Cases

1Brand & Upper-Funnel Measurement

The Problem

Brand spend doesn’t convert immediately.

What It Reveals

Delayed lift over weeks or months.

Decision Enabled

Defend brand budgets with evidence, not belief.

2Content & SEO Impact Timing

The Problem

Content looks unprofitable early.

What It Reveals

Long-tailed revenue accumulation.

Decision Enabled

Invest patiently instead of cycling strategies.

3B2B Long Sales Cycles

The Problem

Leads convert months later, attribution breaks.

What It Reveals

Lagged influence of early touchpoints.

Decision Enabled

Fund demand gen without waiting for demos.

4Budget Pacing & Cash Planning

The Problem

Spend cuts don’t show immediate revenue impact.

What It Reveals

Future revenue already committed by past spend.

Decision Enabled

Avoid overcorrecting during short-term dips.

5Comparing Channels by Time-to-Value

The Problem

ROAS ignores how fast money comes back.

What It Reveals

Payback curves, not just totals.

Decision Enabled

Balance fast-return and slow-return channels.

Powered by SpendSignal

How We Use This Model

SpendSignal uses lag models as a temporal intelligence layer across the platform.

Specifically:

  • Lag-adjusted incrementality
  • Time-to-value scoring
  • Channel-specific decay curves
  • Forecast alignment between spend and revenue

This prevents misclassification of “Slow” channels as bad, or “Fast” channels as scalable forever.

Example Output

Instead of “This channel has low ROAS this month”, you see a Payback Curve:

  • 20% of impact shows in week 1
  • 50% by week 4
  • Long tail up to week 10

The decision insight: "Cutting this now kills revenue two months from today."

Works Best When

  • Sales cycles exceed a few days
  • Brand or consideration channels are present
  • Historical data spans multiple months

Be Cautious When

  • Data is extremely short-term
  • Channels truly convert instantly
  • External shocks dominate timing

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this the same as attribution windows?

No. Attribution windows are rules (e.g., 28 days). Lag models are learned from data, discovering the true shape of the delay.

Does this require user-level tracking?

No. It works on aggregated time series, allowing you to measure delayed impact even in privacy-restricted environments.

Can different channels have different lags?

Yes—and they usually do. That’s the point. TV might lag 8 weeks, while Search lags 2 hours.

Stop Guessing. Start Knowing.

See how Distributed Lag Models (DLNM) changes your budget decisions with a live incrementality audit.

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