Statistical Model

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)

Which model should we trust?

Turns 'one model says X' into '90% probability of X'.

The Problem This Model Solves

Analysts often cherry-pick the model that looks best. BMA avoids this bias by running thousands of models with different variable combinations and averaging them based on how likely they are to be true.

Questions This Model Answers

"Which variables actually matter?"

"How robust is this insight?"

"Are we overfitting?"

How the Model Thinks

It's a weighted democracy of models. Better models get more votes. The final prediction includes the uncertainty of model selection itself.

Core Business Use Cases

1Robust Insight Generation

The Problem

Fragile models that break with new data.

What It Reveals

The 'Probability of Inclusion' for each channel.

Decision Enabled

Focus only on variables that persist across models.

Powered by SpendSignal

How We Use This Model

Used in our Insight Engine to ensure we only surface insights that are statistically robust, not random flukes.

Example Output

A bar chart of Inclusion Probabilities. If "TV Spend" has a 99% probability, it's definitely driving sales. If "Twitter" is 30%, it's likely noise.

Works Best When

  • Variable selection
  • Complex attribution
  • Scientific rigor

Be Cautious When

  • Simple problems where one model is clearly right

Stop Guessing. Start Knowing.

See how Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) changes your budget decisions with a live incrementality audit.

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